 Financial openness and growth: short-run gain, long-run pain?Marcel Fratzscher and Matthieu Bussiere No 348, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank Abstract: No empirical evidence has yet emerged for the existence of a robust positive relationship between financial openness and economic growth. This paper argues that a key reason for the elusive evidence is the presence of a time-varying relationship between openness and growth over time: countries tend to gain in the short-term, immediately following capital account liberalisation, but may not grow faster or even experience temporary growth reversals in the medium- to long-term. The paper finds substantial empirical evidence for the existence of such an intertemporal trade-off for 45 industrialised and emerging market economies. The acceleration of growth immediately after liberalisation is found to be often driven by an investment boom and a surge in portfolio and debt inflows. By contrast, the quality of domestic institutions, the size of FDI inflows and the sequencing of the liberalisation process are found to be important driving forces for growth in the medium to longer term. JEL Classification: F33, F34, F36, F43 Keywords: capital account; composition of capital flows; economic growth; intertemporal trade-off; liberalisation; quality of institutions; sequencing. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004348 Access Statistics for this paper More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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