Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators

Javier Pérez

No 497, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts' figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts' movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6

Keywords: European Monetary Union; Fiscal forecasting and monitoring; General Government Deficit; Leading indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-06
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: Early-warning tools to forecast General Government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal Indicators (2005)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005497

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