The heterogeneous impact of labor market shifts on household mortgage-taking

Michele Cantarella and Ilja Kristian Kavonius

No 3109, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: This paper examines how structural change in labor markets affects household credit outcomes. Using a Shift-Share instrumental variable approach, we find that occupational shifts negatively influence mortgage holding for households facing fa-vorable job market conditions, such as stable employment and income growth. Our results, robust to alternative specifications, suggest that when both individual and economy-wide career prospects are favorable, the opportunity costs of settling down grow accordingly. JEL Classification: G51, J24, D84, O15

Keywords: household credit; job security; structural change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09
Note: 374170
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253109

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