Quantifying the Impact of Cereal Price Changes on Food Security in Tunisia: A Panal Threshold Regression Model

Ibtissem Gannoun (), Naoufel Liouane (), Dorsaf Jammali () and Hassen Ben Jenana ()
Additional contact information
Ibtissem Gannoun: Department of Economics and International Trade, Higher Institute of Business, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Naoufel Liouane: Department of Economics, Higher Institute of Finance and Taxation, University of Sousse, Sousse, Tunisia
Dorsaf Jammali: Department of Economics, Higher School of Economic and Commercial Sciences Tunis, University of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia
Hassen Ben Jenana: Arab East College, Riyadh, KSA

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2025, vol. 15, issue 3, 156-165

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between cereal price volatility and food security in Tunisia from 1991 to 2021 using a Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) model. The findings reveal a significant regime shift at a cereal price index of 4.6131, delineating low- and high-price regimes. Results show that rising cereal prices negatively impact food security but to a lesser extent during high-price volatility periods, highlighting the importance of ingrained consumption patterns and government interventions, such as subsidies. GDP per capita, real effective exchange rate, and external debt show varying influences across regimes. The study recommends diversifying import sources, enhancing local agricultural productivity through sustainable practices, and improving debt allocation efficiency. Policymakers should focus on price stabilization, targeted subsidies, and trade competitiveness to strengthen food security and resilience. The study underscores the need for comprehensive strategies addressing structural vulnerabilities and fostering long-term sustainability in Tunisia's food system.

Keywords: Food Safety; Panel Threshold Regression; Tunisia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/18541/8827 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ1:v:15:y:2025:i:3:id:18541

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi

DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.18541

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues from International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Monica Sinhat ().