The Impact of Oil Prices on the Food Inflation in Kazakhstan

Sabit Baimaganbetov, Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev, Gulzhan Baibosynova, Rima Yermankulova and Botagoz Dandayeva
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Sabit Baimaganbetov: Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.
Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev: Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.
Gulzhan Baibosynova: Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.
Rima Yermankulova: Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.
Botagoz Dandayeva: Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University, Turkestan, Kazakhstan.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2021, vol. 11, issue 3, 73-79

Abstract: This paper assesses empirically the effects of real oil price shocks on the food inflation in Kazakhstan for the monthly period 2004-2019 by using a VAR model. Standard unit root tests do not yield reliable results in the presence of breaks. In this regard, Zivot-Andrews (1992) has been tested with the help of unit root test. Food prices have been proven to be I(1) according to the Zivot-Andrews (1992) test, while I(0) is according to the ADF test. In subsequent steps, the causality test of the variables was performed. According to the test, there is a double-chance causality between oil prices and food prices. The short-term effect of the variables is investigated with the help of the VAR model. As a result, crude oil prices have an indirect impact on food prices.

Keywords: Kazakhstan; Oil Prices; Food Prices; Inflation; VAR Model; Unit-Root Test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E64 L66 P44 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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