Analysis of the Economic and Environmental Factors Affecting CO2 Emissions in Egypt: A Proposed Dynamic Econometric Model

Ehab Ebrahim Mohamed Ebrahim (), Mohamed R. Abonazel (), Awadelkarim Elamin Altahir Ahmed (), Suzan Abdel-Rahman () and Walaa Abdullah Abdullah Albeltagy ()
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Ehab Ebrahim Mohamed Ebrahim: Department of Economics, College of Business, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Mohamed R. Abonazel: Department of Applied Statistics and Econometrics, Faculty of Graduate Studies for Statistical Research, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
Awadelkarim Elamin Altahir Ahmed: Department of Economics, College of Business, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Suzan Abdel-Rahman: Department of Biostatistics and Demography, Faculty of Graduate Studies for Statistical Research, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
Walaa Abdullah Abdullah Albeltagy: Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2025, vol. 15, issue 4, 152-165

Abstract: Developing nations have environmental issues due to their dependence on non-renewable energy sources for economic development. This paper analyzed the interplay between CO? emissions and five economic variables, namely land under cereal production (LAND), manufacturing (MANUF), trade openness (TRADE), GDP per capita (GDPPC), and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Egypt from 1990 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to examine both short-term and long-term relationships. The results indicated that the ARDL (1,1,2,2,0, 0) is the optimal model, which has the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value. The variables of MANUF and GDPPC negatively affected CO? emissions, but the TRADE and LAND variables had positive long-term effects. The lagged periods of TRADE and LAND variables have significantly affected CO? levels. The results of the error correction model indicate that the speed of return to long-run equilibrium after a short-run deviation occurs within about 4.5 years based on the value of the error correction term.

Keywords: ARDL Model; Climate Change; Economic Activities; Land Under Cereal Production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ2:v:15:y:2025:i:4:id:19222

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DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.19222

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