Energy-Related Uncertainty and Tourism Stock Markets: New Insights from Time-Varying Relationship with TVP- VAR Approach

Zokir Mamadiyarov (), Otabek Saidov (), Nargiza Abdurazakova (), Samariddin Makhmudov (), Murod Nazarov (), Nilufar Rajabova (), Mohamed AlShami () and Iroda Ruzmetova ()
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Zokir Mamadiyarov: Department of Economics, Mamun University, Khiva, Uzbekistan
Otabek Saidov: Department of Economics, Urgench State University, Urgench, Uzbekistan
Nargiza Abdurazakova: Department of Finance, Alfraganus University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Samariddin Makhmudov: Department of Finance and Tourism, Termez University of Economics and Service, Termez, Uzbekistan; & Center of the Engagement of International Ranking Agencies, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Murod Nazarov: Department of Translation Theory and Practice, Urgench State University, Home 14, Kh. Alimjan Str., 220100 Urgench, Uzbekistan
Nilufar Rajabova: Urgench State Pedagogical Institute, Urgench, Uzbekistan
Mohamed AlShami: University of Fujairah, Fujairah, UAE,
Iroda Ruzmetova: Department of Economics, Urgench State University, Home 14, Kh. Alimjan Str., 220100 Urgench, Uzbekistan

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2025, vol. 15, issue 4, 730-737

Abstract: In this study, a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is estimated to examine the effects of energy-related uncertainty, geopolitical risk and global economic activity on tourism stock prices in the United States (US) over the period February 1996-September 2022. The time-varying responses reveal that tourism stocks are negatively affected by energy-related uncertainty, particularly during financial crisis and COVID-19. Moreover, geopolitical risk shocks also negatively influence tourism stocks. Global economic activity exhibits both positive and negative shocks in tourism stocks. The results highlight the importance of considering sector-specific dynamics of energy-related uncertainty on tourism stocks in US.

Keywords: Energy-Related Uncertainty; Tourism Stocks; TVP-VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.20480

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