Innovation, Crude Oil Prices, Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption and Climate Sustainability in Egypt: Using the Gradient Boosting Machine Learning Algorithm

Mousa Gowfal Selmey (), Ali Abdelbasset Kammoun (), Mohamed Ibrahim Elgohari () and Mustafa Radwan ()
Additional contact information
Mousa Gowfal Selmey: Department of Business Administration, College of Business, Jouf University, Saudi Arabia; & Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Egypt,
Ali Abdelbasset Kammoun: College of Business, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia,
Mohamed Ibrahim Elgohari: Director of the Senefru Center for Economic and Development Studies, Egypt
Mustafa Radwan: Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, Damietta University, New Damietta, Egypt.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 954-964

Abstract: The present paper analyses the predictions of yearly carbon emissions and the impacts of innovation, crude oil prices, fossil fuel energy consumption, urbanisation, and economic growth on climate sustainability in Egypt from 1990 to 2024 using a gradient-boosting machine learning algorithm. The models' performance was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), R-squared, accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, area under the curve (ROC AUC), and confusion matrix accuracy. The findings demonstrated that a gradient-boosting algorithm attains nearly flawless performance across all assessment metrics for carbon emission prediction. Moreover, the analysis revealed that fossil fuel demand is dominant in explaining carbon emissions in Egypt. It means fossil fuel consumption is the most influential factor at 22.3%, followed by economic growth at 20.2%, innovation at 15.6%, crude oil prices at 14.8%, renewable energy consumption at 14.2%, and finally urban population at 12.9%. The document offers substantial implications for policymakers and academics in mitigating CO? emissions. The findings suggest that it is necessary to implement a comprehensive policy package that emphasises demand management, enhances energy efficiency programs, accelerates clean energy deployment, and promotes green innovation in pursuit of a more sustainable energy mix in Egypt in the long term.

Keywords: Carbon Emissions; Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption; Innovation; A Gradient-boosting Algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/21742/9669 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ2:v:16:y:2025:i:1:id:21742

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep

DOI: 10.32479/ijeep.21742

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy from International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Monica Sinhat ().