Economic development and migration drivers toward the European Union: evidence using Bayesian Model Averaging

Mariam Camarero, Cecilio Tamarit and Iryna Viazmikina
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Mariam Camarero: Universitat Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.
Iryna Viazmikina: University Jaume I, Economics Department, INTECO.

No 2611, Working Papers from Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia

Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of international migration to the European Union using bilateral migration stocks from 99 origin countries to 19 EU destinations over the period 2000–2017. We apply Bayesian Model Averaging within a high-dimensional gravity framework, jointly evaluating economic, demographic, institutional, trade, policy, and proximity-based determinants under model uncertainty. We account for the multilateral nature of migration decisions by combining high-dimensional fixed effects with common correlated effects while preserving identification. Our results identify a stable core of migration drivers, together with systematic heterogeneity across origin countries by income level. These findings offer new evidence-based guidance for EU migration and integration policies.

Keywords: migrations; variable selection; high-dimensional panels; gravity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C55 F17 F22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-inv and nep-mig
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