Impacts of border carbon adjustments on China's sectoral emissions: Simulations with a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Qin Bao, Ling Tang, ZhongXiang Zhang and Shouyang Wang

China Economic Review, 2013, vol. 24, issue C, 77-94

Abstract: Carbon-based border tax adjustments (BTAs) have recently been proposed by some OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries to level the carbon playing field and target major emerging economies. This paper applies a multi-sector dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the impacts of the BTAs implemented by the US and EU on China's sectoral carbon emissions. The results indicate that BTAs will decrease export prices and transmit the effects to the whole economy, affecting sectoral output and demand from both the supply side and demand side. On the supply side, sectors might move away from exporting towards the domestic market, thereby increasing sectoral supply, while on the demand side, the domestic income may be strikingly cut down due to the decrease in export price, decreasing sectoral demand. Furthermore, such shrinkage of demand may similarly reduce energy prices, which would lead to an energy substitution effect and somewhat stimulate carbon emissions. Depending on the relative strength of the output–demand effect and energy substitution effect, sectoral carbon emissions and energy demands will vary across sectors, with increases, decreases or shifts in different directions. These results suggest that an incentive mechanism to encourage the widespread use of environment-friendly fuels and technologies will be more effective than BTAs.

Keywords: Border carbon tax adjustments; Computable general equilibrium model; Carbon emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 F18 Q43 Q48 Q52 Q54 Q56 Q58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (41)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments on China's Sectoral Emissions: Simulations with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (2012)
Working Paper: Impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Sectoral Emissions: Simulations with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (2011)
Working Paper: Impacts of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Sectoral Emissions: Simulations with a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chieco:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:77-94

DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2012.11.002

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