 When economic downturn hits bottom workers: Labor market entry conditions and long-term career effectsYe Jiang and Tonglong Zhang China Economic Review, 2025, vol. 91, issue C Abstract: Recessions can have enduring negative consequences on labor markets, yet their impacts on bottom workers employed in flexible forms remain underexplored. This study provides empirical evidence on how adverse labor market entry conditions persistently affect the careers of bottom workers, specifically Chinese rural-urban migrants. Baseline estimations reveal that increases in national or regional unemployment rates significantly reduce the career earnings and labor supply of these migrants. The persistent adverse effects are largely driven by long-term penalties stemming from initial job downgrading at labor market entry. Additionally, this study examines heterogeneities in career effects, uncovering substantial impacts on individual life trajectories, such as delayed marriage and fertility plans. These findings have important policy implications and enhance our understanding of the long-term effects of macroeconomic fluctuations on vulnerable labor cohorts. Keywords: Labor market entry conditions; Bottom workers; Rural-urban migrants; Earnings; Employment; Long-term effects (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chieco:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s1043951x25000379 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102379 Access Statistics for this article China Economic Review is currently edited by B.M. Fleisher, K. X. D. Huang, M.E. Lovely, Y. Wen, X. Zhang and X. Zhu More articles in China Economic Review from Elsevier |
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