A calibration procedure for analyzing stock price dynamics in an agent-based framework

Maria Recchioni, Gabriele Tedeschi and Mauro Gallegati

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, vol. 60, issue C, 1-25

Abstract: In this paper we introduce a calibration procedure for validating of agent based models. Starting from the well-known financial model of (Brock and Hommes, 1998), we show how an appropriate calibration enables the model to describe price time series. We formulate the calibration problem as a nonlinear constrained optimization that can be solved numerically via a gradient-based method. The calibration results show that the simplest version of the Brock and Hommes model, with two trader types, fundamentalists and trend-followers, replicates nicely the price series of four different markets indices: the S&P 500, the Euro Stoxx 50, the Nikkei 225 and the CSI 300. We show how the parameter values of the calibrated model are important in interpreting the trader behavior in the different markets investigated. These parameters are then used for price forecasting. To further improve the forecasting, we modify our calibration approach by increasing the trader information set. Finally, we show how this new approach improves the model׳s ability to predict market prices.

Keywords: Calibration; Validation; Forecasting; Agent-based models; Asset pricing; Heterogeneous beliefs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 C63 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (73)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:60:y:2015:i:c:p:1-25

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.08.003

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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is currently edited by J. Bullard, C. Chiarella, H. Dawid, C. H. Hommes, P. Klein and C. Otrok

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