 The nexus among geopolitical risk, metal prices, and global supply chain pressure: Evidence from the TVP-SV-VAR approachYiqing Jia, Yang Liu and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary Economic Analysis and Policy, 2025, vol. 85, issue C, 1776-1789 Abstract: The global supply chain faces dual challenges from geopolitical risks and metal price shocks, revealing that their time-varying relationship has become a core issue of national security and corporate competition. By applying the TVP-SV-VAR approach, this study explores the time-varying effects of geopolitical risk, metal prices, and global supply chain pressure from 1998 to 2023. The key findings are as following: (1) Global crises have a more significant impact on supply chain pressure than regional crises do; (2) Geopolitical risk has a more obvious impact on metal prices and global supply chain pressure, with varying degrees of "positive feedback loop" among them, exacerbating economic uncertainty; (3) The COVID-19 crisis, as a unique event over an indeterminate period, has led to directional changes in the impact among the three factors. This study offers crucial guidance to investors, manufacturers, and policymakers in safeguarding the security of supply chains amid complex geopolitical risks and stochastic fluctuations in metal prices. Keywords: Geopolitical uncertainty; Metal prices; Global supply chain pressure; TVP-SV-VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:85:y:2025:i:c:p:1776-1789 DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.02.003 Access Statistics for this article Economic Analysis and Policy is currently edited by Clevo Wilson More articles in Economic Analysis and Policy from Elsevier |
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