Integrating modelling-based and stakeholder-focused scenario approaches to close the planning gap and accelerate low-carbon transitions

James Derbyshire

Ecological Economics, 2024, vol. 221, issue C

Abstract: While many transition scenarios describe potential low-carbon systems, few link these system-level outcomes to the microlevel stakeholder decision-making needed to actualise them, resulting in a ‘planning gap’. Closing this gap requires that insights from modelling-based transition scenarios on what must happen to achieve climate targets are linked to those on how to make it happen from stakeholder-focused transition scenarios. This link requires a different understanding of decision-making rationality from that of a representative agent with rational expectations, as employed in much climate-change modelling currently. Rationality conceived as ‘frame-sensitive reasoning’ can better account for heterogenous stakeholders' alternative preferences, the actions they take in pursuit of them, and the effect of these actions on low-carbon transitions. This paper augments the Intuitive Logics (IL) stakeholder-focused scenario approach to enable frame-sensitive reasoning and provide modelling-based transition scenarios with realistic innovation-diffusion assumptions. In so doing, the paper assists in closing the planning gap.

Keywords: Low-carbon transitions; Scenario planning; Intuitive Logics; Frame-sensitive reasoning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:221:y:2024:i:c:s0921800924001058

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108208

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