 Conditional threshold effects of stock market volatility on crude oil market volatilityKaiji Motegi and Shigeyuki Hamori Energy Economics, 2025, vol. 143, issue C Abstract: In this paper, we analyze conditional threshold effects of stock market volatility on crude oil market volatility. We use Conditional Threshold Autoregression (CoTAR), a novel extension of TAR from a constant threshold to a time-varying threshold. The conditional threshold is specified as an empirical quantile of recent realizations of a threshold variable. This specification is expected to match investors’ relative perception of financial risk. The target variable is monthly realized volatility (RV) measures of the West Texas Intermediate, and the threshold variable is monthly RV measures of the S&P 500 Index. Our rolling window out-of-sample analysis indicates that the predictive ability of CoTAR is at least on par with TAR for all cases considered, and significantly better than TAR for some cases. The superiority of CoTAR is pronounced when the target variable is a downside RV measure. This is a useful finding which helps market participants and policymakers better control downward risks. Keywords: Conditional Threshold Autoregression (CoTAR); Diebold–Mariano test; Good and bad volatilities; Out-of-sample forecast; Realized volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:143:y:2025:i:c:s014098832500012x DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108189 Access Statistics for this article Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier |
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