Pricing climate transition risk: Evidence from European corporate CDS

Michele Costola and Katia Vozian

Energy Economics, 2025, vol. 143, issue C

Abstract: The European low-carbon transition towards net-zero emissions by 2050 is gaining momentum. This study analyzes a major European firm’s climate-related transition indicators and their impact on CDS-implied credit risk across different time horizons. Results reveal market pricing of transition risk across all tenors, especially since the 2015 Paris Agreement. Carbon-intensive sectors like Electricity, Gas, and Mining face heightened transition risk pricing. Interestingly, the market may undervalue a company’s transition risk management efforts and participation in the EU ETS, possibly due to market inefficiencies. Predicting allowance prices’ impact on financial performance in the EU ETS market is notably challenging due to unique supply–demand dynamics.

Keywords: Climate change; Transition risk; Credit risk; Credit default swap; Emissions trading system (ETS); Financial markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D53 E58 G1 G32 Q51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:143:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325000714

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108248

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