Multiple timescale analysis and factor analysis of energy ecological footprint growth in China 1953-2006

Cheng-Zhong Chen and Zhen-Shan Lin

Energy Policy, 2008, vol. 36, issue 5, 1666-1678

Abstract: Scientific analysis of energy consumption and its influencing factors is of great importance for energy strategy and policy planning. The energy consumption in China 1953-2006 is estimated by applying the energy ecological footprint (EEF) method, and the fluctuation periods of annual China's per capita EEF (EEFcpc) growth rate are analyzed with the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method in this paper. EEF intensity is analyzed to depict energy efficiency in China. The main timescales of the 37 factors that affect the annual growth rate of EEFcpc are also discussed based on EMD and factor analysis methods. Results show three obvious undulation cycles of the annual growth rate of EEFcpc, i.e., 4.6, 14.4 and 34.2 years over the last 53 years. The analysis findings from the common synthesized factors of IMF1, IMF2 and IMF3 timescales of the 37 factors suggest that China's energy policy-makers should attach more importance to stabilizing economic growth, optimizing industrial structure, regulating domestic petroleum exploitation and improving transportation efficiency.

Date: 2008
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