Did the 1917–21 economic depression accelerate the epidemiological transition? Milk prices, summer peak of mortality, and food-and-water causes of death in Madrid, Spain

Michel Oris, Stanislao Mazzoni and Diego Ramiro-Fariñas

Explorations in Economic History, 2024, vol. 94, issue C

Abstract: This article aims to answer a provocative question: would higher prices, particularly that of milk, be beneficial for the survival of children under 2 years old? Using a database of more than 230,000 births, matched to deaths, we test this hypothesis in the context of a large Mediterranean city, Madrid, in the years 1915–1926. During this period an inflationary crisis spread from 1917 to 1921. We compare child survival, the impact of milk price fluctuations, and the summer mortality peak, controlling for socio-spatial segregation and considering all-cause mortality and mortality due to food- and water-borne illnesses, before, during and after the economic depression. A positive association between increases in the milk price and better chances of survival is statistically robust, but only observed during depression. Several explanations are discussed.

Keywords: Infant mortality; Childhood mortality; Seasonality; Milk; Epidemiological transition; Madrid (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I14 I30 J31 N34 N94 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:exehis:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s0014498324000391

DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2024.101613

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