Is Bitcoin the best safe haven against geopolitical risk ?

Messaoud Chibane and Nathalie Janson

Finance Research Letters, 2025, vol. 74, issue C

Abstract: We revisit the ability of well-known safe havens to protect U.S equity against geopolitical risk. Using S&P 500 and GPR index weekly data we estimate a crash model where the equity crash probability is driven by geopolitical risk. We find that Bitcoin and the Swiss Franc function as safe havens in relation to geopolitical risk in times of market crashes while Gold and Treasury bonds do not. Our results show that the protective aspects of Bitcoin and the Swiss Franc mainly show through large stock market moves rather than during moderate variations.

Keywords: Geopolitical risk; S&P 500; Safe haven; Market crash (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E14 E51 G01 G11 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s1544612324015721

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106543

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