On the relationship between geopolitical risks and euro area sovereign bond yields

Vassilios Papavassiliou

Finance Research Letters, 2025, vol. 75, issue C

Abstract: This paper is the first to investigate the relationship between euro area sovereign bond yields and geopolitical risks. The sample period extends from January 2016 to October 2024 and includes all major recent geopolitical events. Using standard linear regression models, the results indicate that geopolitical risks are strongly positively associated with sovereign bond yields, even after controlling for economic factors that determine bond yields. This finding is consistent with the view that markets anticipate an extra risk premium to compensate bond holders for increased geopolitical risks.

Keywords: Geopolitical risks; Sovereign bond yields; Euro area sovereign bond markets; Bond risk premium; Russia–Ukraine war; Israel–Hamas war (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 G10 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:75:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325001424

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.106877

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