From headlines to pipelines: Unpacking the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict through sentiment and topics

Ernest N. Biktimirov and Moyosore J. Babalola

Finance Research Letters, 2025, vol. 78, issue C

Abstract: This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil markets by analyzing the sentiment and intensity of Russia-related discussions in business media. Using topic modeling, we identify 12 distinct topics of articles published in The Wall Street Journal during the 2014–2024 period and compute their sentiment and hype scores. The sentiment and hype of these topics exhibit varying relations with oil returns under different market conditions. Notably, the Global Economy and Oil topics show the strongest positive association with oil returns in both sentiment and hype, particularly during bullish oil markets.

Keywords: Geopolitics; Russia-Ukraine conflict; Oil price; Media sentiment; Topic modeling; Textual analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 F51 G12 G41 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s154461232500399x

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107136

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