‘Crypto president’: Do narrative political signals drive cryptocurrency returns?

Sami Ben Jabeur, Zouhaier Dhifaoui, Yassine Bakkar and Houssein Ballouk

Finance Research Letters, 2025, vol. 78, issue C

Abstract: This study provides evidence on the role of the quality of political signals in predicting six major cryptocurrency asset classes. Including communications from the U.S. presidential election in 2024, we find that political news affects cryptocurrency returns in the short-term (from ∼2 to ∼4 months). For most cryptoassets, text sentiment measures demonstrate superior predictive performance compared to historical cryptocurrency time series in out-of-sample forecasts.

Keywords: Narrative political signals; Cryptocurrency; Wavelet coherence; Out-of-sample prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finlet:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s154461232500457x

DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107194

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