GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load forecasting: An integrated solution with forecast combination and residual simulation

Jingrui Xie and Tao Hong

International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, vol. 32, issue 3, 1012-1016

Abstract: We present an integrated solution for probabilistic load forecasting. The proposed solution was the basis for Jingrui Xie’s submission to the probabilistic load forecasting track of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), and consists of three components: pre-processing, forecasting, and post-processing. The pre-processing component includes data cleansing and temperature station selection. The forecasting component involves the development of point forecasting models, forecast combination, and temperature scenario based probabilistic forecasting. The post-processing component embodies residual simulation for probabilistic forecasting. In addition, we also discuss several other variations that were implemented during the competition.

Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting; Load forecasting; Residual simulation; Regression analysis; Time series modeling; Neural networks; Forecast combination (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:32:y:2016:i:3:p:1012-1016

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.11.005

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