A fully Bayesian tracking algorithm for mitigating disparate prediction misclassification

Martin B. Short and George O. Mohler

International Journal of Forecasting, 2023, vol. 39, issue 3, 1238-1252

Abstract: We develop a fully Bayesian tracking algorithm with the purpose of providing classification prediction results that are unbiased when applied uniformly to individuals with differing sensitive variable values, e.g., of different races, sexes, etc. Here, we consider bias in the form of group-level differences in false prediction rates between the different sensitive variable groups. Given that the method is fully Bayesian, it is well suited for situations where group parameters or regression coefficients are dynamic quantities. We illustrate our method, in comparison to others, on simulated datasets and two real-world datasets.

Keywords: Bayesian; Tracking algorithm; Fair algorithm; Bias reduction; Recidivism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:3:p:1238-1252

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.05.008

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