Internal consistency of household inflation expectations: Point forecasts vs. density forecasts

Yongchen Zhao

International Journal of Forecasting, 2023, vol. 39, issue 4, 1713-1735

Abstract: We examine the internal consistency of US households’ inflation expectations reported as point and density forecasts by the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. We find that the majority of the households report well-defined histograms, with their central tendencies close to the corresponding point forecasts. We observe higher levels of consistency in forecasts reported by survey respondents with higher levels of income, education, and financial literacy. Furthermore, our results suggest that both the point forecasts directly reported and those derived from the histograms are more accurate when they are from respondents who are more likely to report consistent forecasts. In addition, we find that the consensus derived using only the consistent forecasts is as accurate as the consensus derived using all forecasts.

Keywords: Consumer survey; Probability distributions; Histogram forecasts; Consensus forecasts; Forecast uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:39:y:2023:i:4:p:1713-1735

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.08.008

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