SCORE: A convolutional approach for football event forecasting

Rodrigo Alves

International Journal of Forecasting, 2025, vol. 41, issue 4, 1636-1652

Abstract: Football (also known as soccer or association football) is the most popular sport in the world. It is a blend of skill and luck, making it highly unpredictable. To address this unpredictability, there has been a surge in popularity over the past decade in employing machine learning techniques for forecasting football-related features. This trend aligns with the growing professionalism in football analytics. Despite this progress, the existing body of work remains in its early stages, lacking the depth required to capture the intricate nuances of the sport. In this study, we introduce a convolutional approach designed to predict the occurrence of the next event in a football match, such as a goal or a corner kick, relying solely on easy-to-access past events for predictions. Our methodology adopts an online approach, meaning predictions can be computed during a live match. To validate our approach, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation against five baseline models, utilizing data from various elite European football leagues. Additionally, an ablation study is performed to understand the underlying mechanisms of our method. Finally, we present practical applications and interpretable aspects of our proposed approach.

Keywords: Football event forecasting; Football analytics; Soccer analytics; Next event prediction; Convolutional methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intfor:v:41:y:2025:i:4:p:1636-1652

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.02.004

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