Survival analysis of new intra-European scheduled air services

Richard Klophaus and Matthias Viehmann

Journal of Air Transport Management, 2025, vol. 123, issue C

Abstract: While route planning as a core issue of airline network management has received a lot of attention in academia, the same cannot be said for service closures. This paper analyzes the survival of new intra-European scheduled air services. We estimate a total of four Cox proportional hazards (PH) models with time-dependent covariates to assess the impact of airline, airport, route and service characteristics on survival probabilities, which include a stratified model by business model to estimate separate baseline hazards. The empirical analysis ends in 2019 before the COVID crisis. A key finding is that mainline carriers show a significantly increased likelihood of service discontinuation than low-cost carriers challenging the common notion of low-cost carriers’ footloose strategies.

Keywords: Airline network management; Scheduled air services; Survival analysis; Cox regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:123:y:2025:i:c:s0969699724001777

DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102712

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