A Bayesian approach to detecting nonlinear risk exposures in hedge fund strategies

Dimitrios Giannikis and Ioannis D. Vrontos

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2011, vol. 35, issue 6, 1399-1414

Abstract: This paper proposes a model that allows for nonlinear risk exposures of hedge funds to various risk factors. We introduce a flexible threshold regression model and develop a Bayesian approach for model selection and estimation of the thresholds and their unknown number. In particular, we present a computationally flexible Markov chain Monte Carlo stochastic search algorithm which identifies relevant risk factors and/or threshold values. Our analysis of several hedge fund returns reveals that different strategies exhibit nonlinear relations to different risk factors, and that the proposed threshold regression model improves our ability to evaluate hedge fund performance.

Keywords: Hedge; funds; GARCH; Market; timing; MCMC; methods; Model; uncertainty; Risk; factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:6:p:1399-1414

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