Predictable country-level bias in the reporting of COVID-19 deaths

Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim

Journal of Government and Economics, 2021, vol. 2, issue C

Abstract: We examine whether a country's management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the probability of underreporting of COVID-related deaths for countries with the most stringent policies was 58.6%, compared to a 28.2% for countries with the least stringent policies. Countries with the lowest ex ante healthcare capacity in terms of number of available beds underreport deaths by 52.5% on average, compared to 23.1% for countries with the greatest capacity.

Keywords: Government policy; Crisis management; Reporting; Incentives (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jogoec:v:2:y:2021:i:c:s2667319321000124

DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2021.100012

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