 Technological forecasting of supercomputer development: The March to Exascale computingDong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson and Tom Shott Omega, 2015, vol. 51, issue C, 128-135 Abstract: Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve Exascale performance between early 2021 and late 2022 as either hybrid systems or manycore systems. Keywords: Data envelopment analysis; Technological forecasting; State of the art; Rate of change; Supercomputer (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jomega:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:128-135 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2014.09.009 Access Statistics for this article Omega is currently edited by B. Lev More articles in Omega from Elsevier |
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