The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China

Mohammad S. Hasan

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2010, vol. 32, issue 3, 355-372

Abstract: This paper examines the nature of stationarity, cointegration properties and Granger causality on the relationship between population and per capita income in mainland China in a multivariate vector autoregressive model. This study finds the evidence of a common stochastic trend between population and per capita income which is indicative of long-run relationship between these two variables. Empirical results also indicate that a negative long-run causal relationship is flowing from per capita income to population. The short-run relationship between population growth and per capita income growth is at variance across model specifications. The neoclassical growth model reveals that population growth positively contributes to per capita income growth while the modified endogenous growth model shows a negative relationship between these two variables. Moreover, both neoclassical and endogenous growth models indicate that per capita income growth tends to lower the population growth. The long-run relationship is consistent with Becker's view that as income grows, families tend to prefer quality rather than quantity of children.

Keywords: Population; growth; and; per; capita; income; Population; 'hawk'; argument; Population; 'revisionist'; view; Cointegration; Rank; stability; test; Error; correction; model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:3:p:355-372

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