Covid-19 delayed and exacerbated the impending food price spikes

Jane Du and Cheng King

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2026, vol. 48, issue 2, 448-467

Abstract: This study uses a five-year annual panel to examine food expenditures across 65 countries before and after Covid-19, highlighting their shifts in purchasing power and common features that influence international food prices. Middle-income countries have emerged as key drivers of food price trends. The underlying mechanisms are threefold: (1) Middle-income countries are collectively recovering from Covid-19. The scale of their incremental food demands could quickly push international food prices higher. (2) By 2022, the global population undergoing dietary transitions had doubled to 6.4 billion, turning rising food prices into a long-term challenge. (3) In the absence of significant agricultural technology akin to the Green Revolution, developing economies today are unlikely to meet their growing food demands solely through increased agricultural yields. These factors collectively intensify competition in international food markets and set the stage for significant spikes in food prices in the post-Covid era.

Keywords: Food price; Food security; Middle-income countries; Purchasing power; Covid-19 pandemic; Dietary transition; International food market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:48:y:2026:i:2:p:448-467

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2026.02.001

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