The end of globalization? Evidence and policy evaluation

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada and Evangelos Koutronas

Journal of Policy Modeling, 2026, vol. 48, issue 2, 489-500

Abstract: This paper suggests a Deglobalization Index (Ð-Index) that utilizes economic and security indicators to track the shift from integration to fragmentation (1990–2025). The proposed multidimensional model is constructed under the Omnia Mobilis assumption and interpreted through the Dynamic Imbalanced State framework. Key findings show peak globalization in 1996–2000, a post-2008 break, and a sharp rise in deglobalization after 2021. Policy evaluation suggests the need for new national economic strategies that emphasize friend-shoring and regional diversification, interoperable standards and transparent export controls, targeted buffers for critical goods, and WTO-compatible plurilaterals to manage protectionist pressures. These measures reduce exposure to shocks while preserving efficiency. We conclude with a prioritized policy agenda balancing resilience and openness.

Keywords: Deglobalization; Deglobalization Index (Ð-Index); Protectionism; Anti-immigration policy; Tax reform; Trade policy; Policy modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F10 F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:48:y:2026:i:2:p:489-500

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.12.001

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