Empowering Saudi Arabia's sustainable energy future: A LEAP-Based approach for balancing energy supply and demand

Muhammad Shahid, Amjad Ali, Sikandar Abdul Qadir and Md Tasbirul Islam

Utilities Policy, 2025, vol. 95, issue C

Abstract: Electricity demand in Saudi Arabia is experiencing a volatile upward trend, driven by fluctuations in population and GDP. With non-Saudis making up 40 % of the population, shifts in government policies have directly impacted these numbers, stalling potential growth. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP), four future energy supply and demand scenarios are explored: (1) Low Growth (LG), (2) Medium Growth (MG), (3) High Growth (HG), and (4) High Growth with Demand Management and Energy Efficiency (HGDE). By 2035, demand could soar from 328.6 TWh in the LG scenario to 518 TWh in the HG scenario. Emissions in the LG scenario are projected at 62.1 MMtCO2E, increasing to 103.8 MMtCO2E in the HG scenario. The implementation of Vision (2030) targets is crucial to supporting this growth.

Keywords: Analysis of Vision (2030) Saudia; Energy demand-supply model; LEAP energy analysis; Externality costs in energy Modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:juipol:v:95:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725000475

DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.101932

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