 The dynamics of cohort effect in politicsGilat Levy and Ronny Razin Journal of Public Economics, 2025, vol. 247, issue C Abstract: This paper investigates the dynamic ramifications of cohort effects on politics. We propose a theoretical framework that encompasses a dynamic social-learning model of politics, where cohort effects are endogenously derived from preceding generations’ political decisions. This process underscores the role of political experiences in shaping the beliefs of younger cohorts, which subsequently influence policy decisions as these individuals mature. We demonstrate how these dynamic intergenerational linkages lead to cyclical patterns of polarised and cohesive cohorts. In the proposed model, cohorts emerging during periods of political consensus display less familiarity with optimal policies, resulting, due to random external shocks, in high variance of public opinions. Conversely, cohorts maturing amidst polarisation and political turnover demonstrate greater knowledge about optimal policies, leading to more cohesive public opinions. Notably, our model suggests that transitory shocks can exert persistent influence on politics due to these dynamic linkages. We also present some suggestive evidence, using ANES surveys, showing that different cohorts’ opinions exhibit distinct levels of variance. Keywords: Cohort effects; Polarisation (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:247:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725000957 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105397 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Public Economics is currently edited by R. Boadway and J. Poterba More articles in Journal of Public Economics from Elsevier |
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