Climate and migration in the United States

Patrick Baylis, Prashant Bharadwaj, Jamie T. Mullins and Nick Obradovich

Journal of Public Economics, 2025, vol. 249, issue C

Abstract: We study whether households engage in climate-related migration in the United States, a country where most of the population does not regularly experience natural disasters or work in climate-exposed industries. With comprehensive, long-run data from both the Census and tax filings, we document that warm temperatures induce net out-migration, while cooler temperatures do not. By comparing estimates from models using different lengths of temporal variation, we further show that migration is a medium-run response to high temperatures: decadal and longer shifts in weather have larger annualized impacts than year-over-year changes. Finally, comparisons across county types suggest amenity value is an important mechanism behind climate-related migration in the United States.

Keywords: Climate change; Migration; Weather (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:249:y:2025:i:c:s0047272725001446

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105446

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