Concrete transformation of buildings in China and implications for the steel cycle

Tao Wang, Xin Tian, Seiji Hashimoto and Hiroki Tanikawa

Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 2015, vol. 103, issue C, 205-215

Abstract: Urbanization and real estate development are two mighty impetuses for the growth of China. An enhanced dynamic modeling has been devised to explore stocks and flows of buildings in the country and to quantify the related steel cycle. The uncertainties of the variables and results are investigated by the means of Monte Carlo method and sampling analysis. The building stocks are expected to increase to some 85–130 billion m2 in the mid-century, about 40–100% up from the current level. Throughout China but in urban areas in particular, concrete structures are replacing the buildings made of wood, clay brick, and primitive materials. By 2050 every two out of three buildings in China will be reinforced concrete- or steel-framed, leading to substantial demand for ferrous metals.

Keywords: Buildings; Dynamic stock and flow analysis; Steel Intensity in buildings; Steel cycle; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:recore:v:103:y:2015:i:c:p:205-215

DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.07.021

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