Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

Shun-Peng Zhu, Hong-Zhong Huang, Weiwen Peng, Hai-Kun Wang and Sankaran Mahadevan

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2016, vol. 146, issue C, 1-12

Abstract: A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs.

Keywords: Life prediction; Bayesian inference; Physics of Failure; Uncertainty quantification; Gas turbine disc (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (27)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:146:y:2016:i:c:p:1-12

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.10.002

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