A Bayesian Inference for Remaining Useful Life Estimation by Fusing Accelerated Degradation Data and Condition Monitoring Data

Zhenan Pang, Xiaosheng Si, Changhua Hu, Dangbo Du and Hong Pei

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2021, vol. 208, issue C

Abstract: This article addresses the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of degrading products by fusing the accelerated degradation data and condition monitoring (CM) data. The proposed model differs from the existing models in adopting the non-conjugate prior distributions for random-effect parameters. First, a nonlinear diffusion process model is developed to characterize the degradation process of a product. Next, the relationship between the model parameters and accelerated stress level is established, and the accelerated degradation data are used to determine the prior distribution types and estimate the hyperparameters in the prior distributions. Then, to fuse the accelerated degradation data and CM data, the Bayesian inference is used to update the posterior distributions of model parameters once the new degradation observations are available. In addition, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method based on Gibbs sampling is used to obtain the Bayesian solution numerically. Finally, the approximate RUL distribution considering the randomness of model parameters is obtained by the MCMC method based on the concept of the first hitting time. The proposed method is verified by the practical case study of accelerometers. Comparison results demonstrate that the proposed method can obtain higher RUL estimation accuracy and less uncertainty.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; remaining useful life; accelerated degradation data; diffusion model; non-conjugate prior distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:208:y:2021:i:c:s0951832020308334

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107341

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