Casualty Risks Induced by Primary Fragmentation Hazards from High-explosive munitions

Hao Qin and Mark G. Stewart

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2021, vol. 215, issue C

Abstract: Fatalities and injuries are mainly attributed to primary fragmentation if accidental or malevolent detonation of high-explosive munitions occurs in an open space. This study aims to develop a simulation-based approach to assess individual casualty risks from primary fragments naturally generated by detonation of high-explosive munitions, which enables a stochastic characterization of fragment generation, trajectories, modelling uncertainties, and human vulnerability. The proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example estimating the fatality and injury risks for an individual in a standing position exposed to the detonation of a single 105 mm projectile. The results suggest that, as expected, the individual fatality and injury risks decrease with an increasing stand-off distance. At a stand-off distance greater than 40 m, an individual is more likely to suffer injuries rather than fatality. The safety distance obtained from the present study is 97 m which is close to but less conservative than a safety distance of 104 m in existing literature and standards.

Keywords: Primary fragmentation hazard; metal-cased munition; human vulnerability; casualty risks; stochastic analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:215:y:2021:i:c:s0951832021003938

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107874

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