Bayesian deep-learning for RUL prediction: An active learning perspective

Rong Zhu, Yuan Chen, Weiwen Peng and Zhi-Sheng Ye

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2022, vol. 228, issue C

Abstract: Deep learning (DL) has been intensively exploited for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction in the recent decade. Although with high precision and flexibility, DL methods need sufficient run-to-failure data to guarantee their performance. However, run-to-failure data is fairly expensive to obtain in many industrial applications. How to economically achieve high accuracy with few run-to-failure data becomes a critical and emergent issue. In this study, a Bayesian deep-active-learning framework is proposed for RUL prediction, which goes beyond traditional passive learning and introduces a novel active learning perspective. We use Bayesian neural networks with Monte Carlo dropout inference to predict RUL with uncertainty quantification for samples without run-to-failure labels. The prediction uncertainty is further used to develop an acquisition function for actively selecting target samples to obtain their run-to-failure labels. A recursive model training and active data selection mechanism are then developed to maintain accuracy while reducing the size of the training data. Two practical examples, one from a public bearing dataset and the other from our lab testing on battery degradation, are presented to demonstrate the proposed method. Experimental results demonstrate that 20 and 40% of run-to-failure data can be saved for the bearing and the battery RUL prediction, respectively.

Keywords: Bayesian deep learning; Active learning; Remaining useful life; Prognostics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:228:y:2022:i:c:s0951832022003817

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108758

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