Tornado-induced risk analysis of railway system considering the correlation of parameters

Cheng Yang, Weihao Yin, Xueting Liu, Yanwen Huang, Dagang Lu and Jie Zhang

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2024, vol. 249, issue C

Abstract: The Yangtze River Delta region in China is characterized by a highly dense railway network, coupled with the frequent occurrence of tornado hazards. While tornadoes pose operational risks to railway networks, there was a noticeable dearth of research in this area. To bridge this gap, we propose an analytical framework. Initially, within regions covered by an extensive railway network, we utilize historical data to construct the random field of tornado hazards. For establishing this random field, we recommend adopting the C-vine copula model to capture the correlations among tornado parameters. Subsequently, in the risk analysis of the railway system, three representative disaster scenarios were formulated to comprehensively depict the influence of tornadoes on train operations. Methodologies were presented for calculating the probabilities of these scenarios and the damage measures for train disruption and deceleration. Finally, the physical and functional risk of the railway segments are calculated, and a comprehensive risk assessment is derived. The results reveal that the Angting–Zhengjiang line faces a notably high functional risk, leading to an annual average increase of 0.27 days in the total travel time of the rail network. Both the Angting–Zhengjiang and Yangzhou–Haian lines share the top position in comprehensive risk, emphasizing the need for focused attention.

Keywords: Tornado; Correlation; C-vine copula; Railway system; Risk analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024003120
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:249:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024003120

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110239

Access Statistics for this article

Reliability Engineering and System Safety is currently edited by Carlos Guedes Soares

More articles in Reliability Engineering and System Safety from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().