Verification of the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links

J.C. Helton, J.D. Johnson and W.L. Oberkampf

Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2007, vol. 92, issue 10, 1363-1373

Abstract: Two approaches to the calculation of probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) in temperature dependent weak link/strong link systems are described and compared on the basis of three test problems. The approaches differ in that the first approach permits a separation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the calculation of PLOAS and the second approach combines epistemic and aleatory uncertainty before the calculation of PLOAS. A discrepancy in the results obtained with the test problems led to the identification of an implementation error for one of the approaches. The importance and efficacy of well-designed verification test problems are demonstrated.

Keywords: Aleatory uncertainty; Competing failure; Competing risk; Epistemic uncertainty; Fire environment; High consequence system; Probability of loss of assured safety; Reliability; Strong link; Verification; Weak link (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:10:p:1363-1373

DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.005

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