Long term electricity consumption forecast in Brazil: A fuzzy logic approach

Fabiano Castro Torrini, Reinaldo Castro Souza, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira and Jose Francisco Moreira Pessanha

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2016, vol. 54, issue C, 18-27

Abstract: The energy companies are always facing the challenge of producing more accurate load forecasts. A fuzzy logic methodology is proposed in order to extract rules from the input variables and provide Brazil's long-term annual electricity demand forecasts. In recent literature, the formulation of these types of models has been limited to treating the explanatory variables in the univariate form, or involving only the GDP. This study proposes an extension of this model, starting with population and the GDP additional value. The proposed model is compared with the official projections. The obtained results are quite promising.

Keywords: Forecasting; Energy; Fuzzy sets; Wang–Mendel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:soceps:v:54:y:2016:i:c:p:18-27

DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2015.12.002

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