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Regular conditional probabilities and strictly proper loss functions

Michael Nielsen

Statistics & Probability Letters, 2022, vol. 185, issue C

Abstract: The main result of this paper is that, under fairly general conditions, regular conditional probabilities uniquely minimize the expected loss of a strictly proper loss function. A trivial converse to this result also allows us to characterize strict property in a purely probabilistic way.

Keywords: Regular conditional probability; Strictly proper loss functions; Expected loss; Strict propriety (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2022.109412

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