Inertia and shock effects in public transport: The case of metro line 6 in Santiago using smart card data

Jesper Bláfoss Ingvardson, Sebastián Raveau and Jaime Soza-Parra

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2025, vol. 192, issue C

Abstract: Traffic forecasting has traditionally relied solely on characteristics related to services and users. However, recent research has highlighted the importance of considering travellers’ psychological factors in explaining travel behaviour. While previous studies have incorporated the role of habits in travel choice behaviour, only a few have analysed the role of inertia and shock related to major changes in transport networks. This study contributes to previous research by revealing the changes in the behaviour of public transport passengers over time after the inauguration of a new metro line in Santiago, Chile, using large-scale revealed-preference data from automated fare collection systems. It explicitly analysed the consequences of the new metro on passenger behaviour by considering different passenger types, using a heteroskedastic mixed latent class public transport mode choice model incorporating both inertia effects resulting from habitual behaviour and shock effects resulting from a significant change to the public transport network. The results confirmed significant habitual behaviour among passengers, in that metro users tended to stick to using the metro, but bus users tended to switch to other modes. However, after the introduction of the new metro line, a significant shock effect was observed, whereby users had an increased tendency to switch to modes that improved their level of service, and this effect increased slightly in the longer term. The results highlight the importance of incorporating inertia and shock effects into behavioural studies.

Keywords: Discrete choice modelling; Public transport; Mode choice; Smart card data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856424004002
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s0965856424004002

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104352

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().