The pandemic is over but riders still fear infection − An extended behavioural model explaining post-pandemic transit avoidance related to perceived infection fear

Rumana Sarker, Graham Currie and James Reynolds

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2025, vol. 192, issue C

Abstract: In 2023, transit ridership in most global cities is still below pre-COVID levels. While transit avoidance due to perceived infection fear is a key issue affecting patronage recovery, behavioural models to explain post-pandemic transit use and perceived infection fear are very limited and have not been widely adopted in research. This paper develops an extended theoretical model of transit avoidance from perceived infection fear that integrates Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) with normative influences; namely personal norm and social norm, as well as a measure of infection anxiety. This extended model is measured with a structural equation model (SEM) using data collected from a large online survey in Melbourne, Australia. Additionally, the mediating effects of personal norm, social influence and infection anxiety on transit avoidance is explored and the impact of home relocation is analysed. Results show that higher protection motivation is strongly related to post-COVID transit avoidance. Moreover, personal norm is a stronger predictor of protection motivation compared to threat appraisal and coping appraisal. Infection anxiety also has a significant positive relationship with protection motivation, suggesting that perceived infection fear is still affecting transit avoidance. Comparing the model results, it is evident that while the conventional PMT is effective in predicting long-term transit avoidance, the extended PMT model shows a better goodness-of-fit and explanatory power. Therefore, the extended PMT model developed for this study provides a deeper understanding of the relationships between protection motivation and post-COVID transit avoidance. Several implications for research and practice are suggested.

Keywords: Perceived infection fear; COVID-19; Endemic; Structural Equation Modelling (SEM); Morality; Protection Motivation Theory (PMT); Normative influences; Norm-Activation Model (NAM); Theory of Planned behaviour (TPB); Transit avoidance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856424004117
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:192:y:2025:i:c:s0965856424004117

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104363

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().