Modeling the influence of restriction policies and perceived risk due to COVID-19 on daily activity scheduling

Cloe Cortes Balcells, Fabian Torres, Rico Krueger and Michel Bierlaire

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2025, vol. 200, issue C

Abstract: This study develops an Activity-Based Model (ABM) framework to provide a deeper understanding of how activity restriction policies and perceived risks influence human mobility and, consequently, disease transmission. We propose three main contributions: (i) the Activity-Based Restriction Model (ABRM) systematically implements various activity restriction policies, such as closures, curfews, and distance-based limitations, (ii) we introduce a dynamic programming algorithm to address computational intractability in large-scale scenarios, significantly reducing computation time, (iii) we build a Risk Perception Latent Variable Model to simulate how perceived risks influence individual scheduling behavior. By embedding this model into the ABRM, we create the Activity-Based Risk Perception Restriction Model (ABR2M), which captures the dynamic interplay between risk perception and activity scheduling given activity-restriction policies. This integrated approach provides a detailed evaluation of individual schedules, offering valuable insights for the development of informed transportation policies.

Keywords: Interdisciplinary discipline; Discrete choice model; Activity-based modeling; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Public health policy; Behavioral adaptations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856425002320
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:transa:v:200:y:2025:i:c:s0965856425002320

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional
https://shop.elsevie ... _01_ooc_1&version=01

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104604

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice is currently edited by John (J.M.) Rose

More articles in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().