Forecast of trademark applications in Switzerland

Christian Bock, Matthias Günter, Urs Haftka, Thomas K. Friedli, Mike Mitter and Jürg Hüsler

World Patent Information, 2004, vol. 26, issue 4, 275-282

Abstract: Trademark offices which run according to principles of new management have an inherent need for dependable forecasting data in planning capacity and service levels. We wanted to find out whether there are factors which positively or negatively influence customers to register trademarks in Switzerland. Lacking literature on the idiosyncrasies of trademark filing behavior, we developed our own forecasting model adapted from those in other fields. It included timelines for trademark applications and corresponding classes over a 9-year period (1992-2001) and internal events which might possibly influence filing. The forecast is based on state space models with and without explanatory variables. We used a standard model with trend, season and random components, then added variables for external interventions and finally, added a model for regressors. The result was a statistical model which produced reliable forecasting over an 18-month period. It compares well to four other forecasting methods. Reliability was improved slightly by adding economic variables such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, SPI, SMI and the Swiss Consumer Index.

Keywords: Trademarks; Application; input; Forecasting; Time; series; analysis; State; space; model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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