RBC SVAR for Uzbekistan

Alessandro Saccal

EERI Research Paper Series from Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels

Abstract: The present work provides the first structural decomposition of business cycle fluctuations in Uzbekistan using a Real Business Cycle (RBC) Structural Vector Auto-Regression (SVAR). Employing a recursive identification scheme on a core vector of macroeconomic variables one is to recover the inaugural set of Orthogonalised Impulse Response Functions (OIRFs) and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs) for the Uzbek economy. The findings furnish a critical empirical benchmark for Uzbekistan, scrutinise the theoretical relevance of the RBC framework for transition economies and lay the essential empirical foundation for the subsequent development and parametrisation of a structural Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. The analysis thereby bridges a significant gap in the scientific literature, moving the study of Central Asian business cycles from empirical causality to structural explanation.

Keywords: capital; consumption; labour; RBC; TFP; VARs; Uzbekistan. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C60 E13 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-ets
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